Most people know him only as "Mr. Dax". Dirk Müller has made a name for himself as a stock market broker, book author and financial expert. And since April 2015, his followers have also been able to invest in the fund he launched himself. It's not hard to imagine what goes through investors' minds: fame + expertise = returns. But the equation doesn't add up that easily. According to a review by Stiftung Warentest, investors have made a loss so far. The fund, which promises "premium stocks" and especially competent money management, has lost more than eight percent in value since its launch. The MSCI World global equity index, by contrast, gained almost 15 percent over the same period.
This observation is no isolated case. The mixed fund launched by Max Otte in July 2013 also fails to live up to expectations. The economist and head of the Institut für Vermögensentwicklung (IFVW) prides himself on investing only in so-called quality stocks or other securities. Yet his "Vermögensbildungsfonds AMI" lags far behind its benchmark - a mix of 75 percent MSCI World and 25 percent euro bonds. Over a three-year horizon, the index mix delivered around 12 percentage points more per year.
The followers of doom-and-gloom prophets Matthias Weik and Marc Friedrich, who fill entire auditoriums with their lectures, are faring much the same. Since January, the two fund managers have been offering their investment product under the name "Friedrich und Weik Wertefonds". But here, too, it turns out that punchy slogans alone don't make a financial product run itself. At a time when the Dax is racing from one record to the next, this investment is drifting along and currently sits at around minus four percent in the R share class (private investors with no minimum investment).
Every misjudgement drags returns down
"A good talk-show guest and a good fund manager are two very different things. Investors shouldn't confuse the two," says Stefan Mayerhofer, board member of the asset management firm Bayerische Vermögen, to the newspaper Die Welt. Finanztest also names some very fundamental investment mistakes that these supposed experts make. The focus on individual stocks - and thus the lack of diversification - increases the risk of losing money. The principle of hand-picked stocks on which the experts' funds are supposed to work doesn't come close to being as successful as it's touted to be. While an index like the MSCI World tracks around 1,600 stocks, the funds make do with around 40 holdings or even fewer. Every misjudgement therefore makes itself felt far more strongly and drags returns down.
For these reasons, quirion places great value on diversification. We follow the market as a whole, not supposed experts. Because no one can consistently and correctly predict how individual securities will perform - numerous studies have proven this. That is why we don't invest in actively managed funds, but in index funds, ETFs and asset-class funds. They track indices and are cost-effective, because their composition is predetermined and simply needs to be replicated. So investors can spare themselves the cost of highly paid analysts and fund managers.
